The Tipping Point

February 23, 2012

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By AnonyGrl aka Vienna Hagen

Does anybody else think that we have now officially passed the tipping point?  I thought NY was the cusp, and now with Washington, California, New Jersey, Maryland… we are on the “not necessarily easier, but at least gravity and momentum are working in our favor” side of the balance?

This is absolutely not to say we don’t have a fight ahead.  North Carolina is a big issue, and we have to get moving on that.  A lot of states in the middle need to be encouraged to reconsider their current status.  Many of us still live in states where there is not even a glimpse of change on the horizon, but know that just OVER that horizon, hope lies in wait.  Some are struggling along in states that are still entrenched in discrimination on many levels.  And more are moving towards realizing that marriage equality is necessary, and that equal rights means everyone.  The fight in our federal government over DOMA continues to wend its way, and we have to keep that one in our sights.  Prop 8 is not a done deal yet, even with our spectacular wins, there is a long series of court actions to come and we can’t let any of them slide.

Our To-Do-List seems never ending, but it is not nearly as long, nor as hopeless as it was even just a year ago.  I have the great joy of now living in a state where marriage equality is a fact, something that was not true when I joined the P8TT community.  In fact, when I came aboard here, it looked as though New York would be a long time coming to this point.  Getting involved here on P8TT got me moving in New York, and while I know that mine was only a small contribution, I think that every little bit of effort helps, and know that each person here who took the time to write a Senator, call in, express their opinion and be heard helped to tip that balance.  And I thank each of you, and love you all for it.

Even though I live in Albany, if I had not been around the encouragement I got here at P8TT, I think I would not have taken the time to lobby my Senators in person.  I might not have realized the importance of just showing up at their offices, which are a scant ten minute walk from my house, and saying “this matters!”  The Courage Campaign and other organizations like it, grassroots groups that are funded by those of us who love them, are the ones actually getting the work done, getting the word out, and empowering us to go out and do what we do as citizens to make change happen.  They are the fulcrum on which the lever rests, they are the point that makes tipping possible.

And now it is our turn to “tip” them.  A year ago, Adam asked me to write a piece explaining why I thought supporting the Prop 8 Trial Tracker and the Courage Campaign was important.  You can, if you like, read that piece here and I think it all still stands today.  But now it is even more exciting, because today there is so much more indication that we are WINNING this fight.  We have reached the tipping point, and we are winning!  There is still a ton of fight left to go, but we are winning!

Many of you jumped right in and contributed when Adam asked, as you can see from the thermometer to the upper right of this post.  This is absolutely fantastic, and will help the Courage Campaign continue the fine advocacy work they do.  I am asking that if you have not done so, you think about throwing a little tip, or a big one, their way, to help encourage them to continue to encourage us.  Whatever you can manage is fine, every little bit helps.  You can do it anonymously, or shout it out, whatever you choose, just remember that each of us is what makes this whole fight possible, and the combined weight of our care, compassion, zest, enthusiasm, and love is what makes the lever that is equality balance.

Filed under: P8TT fundraising

27 Comments Leave a Comment

  • 1. Billa  |  February 23, 2012 at 4:51 pm

    To everyone; With the pending referendums coming in Washington and Maryland (and mabe other places) what were the lessons learned during the Prop 8 campaign of the thins done right and the thins done wrong. We need to be smart in these campaigns to make sure the masses of voters really understand. This could be a good place to share experiences.

  • 2. truthspew  |  February 23, 2012 at 5:06 pm

    It is tipping rapidly now. I suspect the federal DOMA will be struck down in 2012 too. That is when all the cards are on the table. You'll see a suit against the state of Rhode Island due to DOMA being struck down that will convert the civil union law to full marriage equality, that should happen by 2013.

  • 3. Gregory in SLC  |  February 23, 2012 at 5:10 pm

    Thank you Anony for ALL!

    so true!
    @ but it is not nearly as long, nor as hopeless as it was even just a year ago

  • 4. nightshayde  |  February 23, 2012 at 5:27 pm

    Something else that would really help in the ongoing struggle for equality would be mobilizing pro-equality folks to go to the polls in November to (1) make sure Obama gets re-elected since none of the Republican candidates appears to be remotely pro-equality and (2) vote a bunch of the anti-equality wingnuts out of Congress – both House and Senate – and replace them with pro-equality people. If we can re-gain solid pro-equality majorities in both houses, perhaps we can do away with DOMA without having to wait for the SCOTUS to rule (though getting a court decision might be good in the long run because it would prevent subsequent Republican administrations from trying to re-enact DOMA).

  • 5. Jon  |  February 23, 2012 at 5:34 pm

    Something that will also help is for the folks who live in referendum states to talk to everyone on their street and explain, personally, why marriage equality is important to them and their friends/family/etc. This especially includes us straight, married ones with kids, as we provide a perspective that may be just the thing to get through to people who haven't listened carefully to "activists"

  • 6. Mark M. (Seattle)  |  February 23, 2012 at 5:52 pm

    Thank you for writing Vienna. You will always will be one of my favorite people. :-)

  • 7. Bob  |  February 23, 2012 at 10:59 pm

    well said AnnonyGrl,,, thanks for the encouragement,,,,, woot woot to all you guys from Canada

  • 8. Pat  |  February 24, 2012 at 2:38 am

    The federal DOMA will be struck down in 2012? Maybe I missed something, but as shown by the image in the right-hand margin of this site, we still need 28 votes in the senate to break a filibuster, which likely won't happen before many cycles…

  • 9. Pat  |  February 24, 2012 at 3:30 am

    Exactly, that's great!
    Now is the time to take the list of most favorable states and decide which are most likely to legalize marriage equality next…
    A good starting point is Nate Silver's analysis: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/06/…
    Which uses 2 models (one in which the poll number improve linearly in our favor, one in which the polls improve at an accelerated pace, as seem to be the case now)

    According to these models, referendum to ban SSM in Washington state would only garner 40.4% of the vote in more optimistic accelerated model and 44.5% of the vote with the more cautious model. This bodes well for November.

    Other states with the number support for SSM bans according to the accelerated, respectively the linear model are here:

    DC: 28.5% (accelerated model) / 30.4% (linear model) -> already SSM
    VT: 29.7% / 32.8% -> already SSM
    MA: 34.1% / 37.6% -> already SSM
    NH: 39.1% / 43.3% -> already SSM
    ME: 39.6% / 43.9% -> pretty good sign for November
    NY: 40.4% / 44.3% -> already SSM
    RI: 40.4% / 44.3%
    WA: 40.4% / 44.5%
    OR: 40.9% / 45.1%
    CA: 41.8% / 45.8% (note that this is a nov.2012 projection, not 2008…)
    CT: 41.7% / 45.9%-> already SSM
    HI: 42.8% / 47%
    AK: 42.7% / 47.1%
    CO: 43.4% / 47.6%
    NV: 43.6% / 48%
    NJ: 46.1% / 50.7%
    DE: 46.4% / 50.9%
    MT: 48.1% / 53.1%
    NM: 49.2% / 53.9%
    MD: 49.2% / 53.9% (that's a very risky situation for November…)
    IL: 49.3% / 54.0%
    MN: 49.3% / 54.1% (also a pretty risky tossup situation…)

    So it looks like the lowest hanging fruits would be Oregon, Hawaii, Alaska, Colorado, Nevada and Delaware…
    Im a little doubtful about Alaska, but who knows…

  • 10. Bill S.  |  February 24, 2012 at 7:02 am

    2012 is too soon and will not be repealed by Congress but rather struck down by the Supreme Court. It depends on whether the Massachusetts DOMA case goes to an en banc hearing or not, but it could take until 2013 or 2014. It is here that the Supreme Court will rule what is to most people now incredibly obvious: gay people meet all of the requirements for heightened scrutiny and laws designed to burden them will be adjudicated as such.

    From here the gay community will face a fork in the road: with the binding precedent that gays are entitled to heightened scrutiny, do they go right for the "big one" i.e. the case that gets marriage equality across the country, or do they first use it to secure marriage equality in all states without a constitutional amendment via state courts who will now be bound by this heightened scrutiny standard?

    This second method I think would be better and would mean marriage equality in 21 states + DC by 2017–2018. This would start the momentum for "the big one" which would be resolved favorably by the Supreme Court by 2020–2021.

  • 11. grod  |  February 24, 2012 at 9:04 am

    Bill, what an incredibly long wait! While you believe in the domino effect, it’s in slow motion. Can you not see it happening by recognizing rights within the jurisdiction of each circuit – like all states in the 9th circuit?

  • 12. Bob  |  February 24, 2012 at 10:25 am

    great post Pat,,,, thanks for the info,,,

    and more good news,,,,one queer refugee from Iran landed safely in the United States on Feb 21st,,, there are presently 9 in route bound for Canada,,, and they are also eager to report they expect 40 refugees to arrive in Canada and the United States by the end of 2012,,,,,, 2012 is a very good year!!!!!!!

  • 13. Bob  |  February 24, 2012 at 10:28 am

    great post Pat,,,, thanks for the info,,,

    and more good news,,,,one queer refugee from Iran landed safely in the United States on Feb 21st,,,
    and there are more enroute yes 2012 is a good year

  • 14. Bob  |  February 24, 2012 at 10:46 am

    sorry for the double post ,,, thought the first one was being modified,,, wasn't going through,,,,

  • 15. JefferyK  |  February 24, 2012 at 11:15 am

    My two cents: The 2008 Obama election brought a lot of African Americans to the polls, and here in California, a lot of African Americans who voted for Obama voted against gay marriage. We could see this play out again in states with gay marriage legislation on the ballots this fall. Please note that African-American legislators in Maryland seriously tried to derail the gay marriage legislation there. I'm not sure what happened — the gay and African-American communities seemed to have established a strong, supportive coalition, but that coalition is now broken. I blame African-American churches, but there are likely other issues at play as well, including racism in the gay community. Furthermore, the Prop 8 campaign was bankrolled by the Catholic and Mormon churches. They have a ton of money — I believe the Vatican is the richest private institution in the world — which means that have a ton of power. And they will use that power against us again this fall.

  • 16. JefferyK  |  February 24, 2012 at 11:18 am

    Well, if the 2008 presidential election here in California is any guide, we cannot rely on people who vote for Obama to vote for marriage equality.

  • 17. Bob  |  February 24, 2012 at 11:44 am

    http://gbgm-umc.org/umw/bible/crusades.stm talking about the Catholic Church,,,, check this history of the bloody crusades,,,, Act on Principles, is presently taking actions to highlight the present crusade by the catholic church against homosexuals,,,,,,, glitter bomb the pope

  • 18. Bob  |  February 24, 2012 at 11:50 am

    http://www.actonprinciples.org/2012/02/23/stop-th… I think this is the link about glitter bomb the pope,,,, stop the crusades,,, present day crusades by the church against LGBT's,,,,, just as viscious as all there previous crusades,,,, they have a history you see!!!! stop them

  • 19. JefferyK  |  February 24, 2012 at 11:56 am

    I suppose that what it boils down to is churches vs. us. Churches are powerful: They have a lot of money, they have a lot of members, they have meeting places, they have access to politicians, and because they are founded on beliefs rather than facts, it is literally impossible to reason with them. Furthermore, religion is a protected class under the Constitution. They have the upper hand. I love glitter bombing, but we are going to have to come up with something better if we are going to defend ourselves from the church onslaught. Churches are strong and motivated and want to see us dead. Literally. I don't think this is an exaggeration.

  • 20. Bob  |  February 24, 2012 at 11:58 am

    the tipping point indeed,,, I posted this news about queer refugees reaching safety in the U.S.. it points to the extremes presently,,,,, the struggle for full equality which is happening,,, and I agree that the struuggle for marriage equaltiy is of highest priority,,,,, and will be won,,,,,

    but someone in the higher offices of gov't and immigration,,, are playing nice and helping queer refugees,,, two extremes imagine those refugees can't even fathom marriage,,, they just want to live,,,, and obviously the gov't has acknowledged,, that queers are a value added, and intellegent group to add to the make up of the country,,,,,

    imagine there stories, when added to our common voice in this battle,,,, we are indeed past the tipping point,,, no stopping us…

  • 21. JefferyK  |  February 24, 2012 at 12:00 pm

    I'd also like to mention that because of the separation of church and state in the U.S., churches can pretty much skirt the law with no fear of reprisal — if you try to regulate them or hold them accountable, they say they are exempt. And that argument often succeeds.

  • 22. Bob  |  February 24, 2012 at 12:34 pm

    agree it's not an exaggeration,,,, the catholic church views us in the same light as any other group throughut history that threatened it's existence,,,,, when they demonize a group,, they mean business,,,,, no harm in calling attention to that,,, glitter bombing is a fun way to do so,,,

    The way we fight the church is to stay under the umbrella of the courts,,, secular law,,,,

  • 23. JefferyK  |  February 24, 2012 at 12:56 pm

    I agree — secular law seems to be our only hope. The fact that so many religion-based anti-gay ballot measures — and all of the are religion-based — end up in court could turn out to be the best thing for us. So, give money to our lawyers! :) !

  • 24. Bob  |  February 24, 2012 at 1:02 pm

    and if you want to blow off steam,,,, have some fun,,, glitter bomb the pope,,,, that e-mail connection is handy,,,,

    P.s. someone should print brochures of the history of crusades,, and make the connection that the crusade is presently against us,,,, the catholic church has a long history of blood on it's hands,,,,,

  • 25. JefferyK  |  February 24, 2012 at 1:07 pm

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auto-da-f%C3%A9

  • 26. Bob  |  February 24, 2012 at 3:02 pm

    good one and reminder,,, the clash between catholic church and native american spirituality,,,, blood on their hands,,,, many people in the pews forget that!!!!

  • 27. Bill S.  |  February 28, 2012 at 6:55 am

    This is a possibility too provided that the case is started in a state where the governor promises to appeal the decision to the Circuit Court but not the Supreme Court, and a different governor with a different position isn't elected while the case is on-going.

    For states that have constitutional marriage bans but with gay-equality supporting governors, they could stop after the District Court to get marriage just in that state.

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